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More player analysis, because it has to be done

January 11th, 2008 | email this | digg it | trackback | comment RSS feed
no comment Posted by Brian Chin
Published in Analysis

As we wait a few more months until the arrival of the 2008 MLB campaign, it’s time we look at what was done in the off-season that may have improved or crippled teams for the future. Yes, it’s time for some more player analysis on some players non-Japanese players that may or may not prove their worth for the upcoming season.

Milton Bradley signed with the Texas Rangers

Bradley has always been a pretty solid player. He’s a career .276 hitter, but hit .313 with the Padres before getting sidelined by an official. He’s never hit more then 20 homeruns and a good reason for that might be because he’s only played more than 102 games once in his career (2004). If he can stay healthy, 25 homeruns and 80-90 RBI doesn’t seem too far out of the equation. At one-year $5 million, Texas has Milton at a reasonable price. Even if he hits in the DH spot for the majority of the season, they’ll get plenty of use out of him.Milton

Luis Castillo re-signs with the New York Mets

For the Mets to offer Castillo $25 million over the next 4 years seems like a bit of a stretch. He’s 32 years old and hits pretty much for average. There’s nothing wrong with average hitters, but at $25 million, why not bring up one of the younger kids to play with Reyes instead and use that money toward next season or at the mid-season trade deadline? In any event, Castillo will probably hit a good average – .301, .296 and .300 the last three seasons – and will play above average defense. A bit pricey in my opinion.

Matt Clement signs with the St. Louis Cardinals

At one-year $1.5 million, the Cards paid for an average pitcher (87-86 career) with a very high earned run average (4.47 career). Clement’s got high walk totals but did strike out 215 batters back in 2002 with the Cubs. He’s never won 15 games and did only play in 12 games last season for the Red Sox. He’s been extremely healthy – more than 30 games played in the last 7 seasons – but his injury last season might be an indicator of his workload. The $1.5 million really isn’t a lot for an average pitcher.

Francisco Cordero signs with the Cincinnati Reds

The Reds didn’t really need a closer but they went after Cordero who happened to be on the market. I guess the Reds brass didn’t feel comfortable bringing in Dave Weathers in the close games – but the question is, why not? He saved 33 of 39 opportunities, had just under a 3.60 era and finished the year with a 2-6 record. Sure, it’s not sparkling, but is it justification for signing Cordero long term (four years) at $46 million? To his credit, Cordero is a very good closer. He saved 44 games last year for the Brewers with an impressive 2.98 ERA. He did, however, blow 7 games, one off his career high 8. Back in 2004 and 2005, Cordero saved 49 and 37 games, blowing just 5 and 8 games. He’s a rock in the bullpen, but an expensive rock at that.

David Eckstein signs with the Toronto Blue Jays

Eckstein hopes to jump start a stagnant Jays offence with his approach to the plate. He’s a career .286 hitter, but did have his best year last season batting .309. He’ll also run on command – only 10 stolen bases last year, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the Jays, as a team, had less. Eckstein is entering his seventh pro season and basically stole $4.5 million from the Jays. He’s a solid player, don’t get me wrong – playing pretty much 120 games a season, with a good average and speed – but his pay cheque is going to raise some eyebrows. Since when did the Jays have $4.5 to spend on a shortstop?Eckstein

Eric Gagne signs with the Milwaukee Brewers

At one time, Eric Gagne was the most dominant reliever in baseball. He was so dominant, in fact, that he was nicknamed “Game Over.” When the Dodgers had a lead going into the ninth, even sometimes the eighth, the game was pretty much over when he entered. Fast-forward to last season – after being traded from Texas – Gagne proceeded to give up 14 earned runs in 18.2 innings, blowing three saves and inflating his ERA to 6.75. Sure, it wasn’t his proudest moment but I still think Gagne’s got something to prove. Before coming over to Boston, Gagne did save 16 of 17 games for the Rangers with a 2.16 era giving up just eight runs in 33 innings. The Brewers decided to take a $10 million dollar chance on him – a bit expensive considering his collapse at the end of the regular season and in the playoffs.

Jose Guillen signs with the Kansas City Royals

Three years, $36 million.

Two words: huge waste.

Guillen has had some monster seasons in the past: 27-104 in 2004, 23-99 last season, but at 12 million a season? Give me a break. Class case of a team paying way too much for something they’ll want to get rid of about 10 games into the season. He’s injured annually but, to his credit, played about 150 games in three of the last four seasons.

Torii Hunter signs with the LA AngelsHunter

Hunter is a very good player on both sides of the field. He plays gold-glove defense and definitely has some pop in his bat. He’ll run when needed and has a great smile. Is there something this guy doesn’t have? If not, he can buy it with the $90 million invested in him over the next five years. So long for the Gary Matthews Jr. reign in centerfield. Last season, Hunter hit 28 homeruns with 107 runs batted in, a career high. He’ll finally have a decent lineup so expect his numbers to rise. Good move for both camps. Torii got his payday and the Angels have a centerfielder.

Andruw Jones signs with the LA Dodgers

I’m torn between calling this a rip deal or a bargain for the Dodgers. They need offense, they could use some help defensively and, with Andruw Jones, they filled both voids. However, Jones (30), hits for a very poor average – .222 last season, .263 career – and has pretty much cut running out of his game. He can still hit the ball, 128 homeruns the last three seasons, and can still drive runners home 251 RBI in that span. Eighteen million doesn’t seem like so much – but I just can’t ever justify paying an aging player that much money. He’s earned his share, don’t get me wrong, but that’s just way too much.

Rocket still fuming over criticism, Jim Caple steals my headline!

January 9th, 2008 | email this | digg it | trackback | comment RSS feed
no comment Posted by Brian Chin
Published in News

Last week, I wrote that Clemens would probably deny everything connecting him to steroids in the “60 Minutes” interview. He did. Last week, I wrote that the press conference he would hold after, would prove to be useless and would probably be a rehashed version of the prior interview. It was. What I didn’t bank on, however, was Jim Caple of ESPN stealing my headline, well almost.Young Clemens

The headline reads: The Rocket speaks, the world listens and was updated on January 7th. The headline I wrote on the 3rd reads: Clemens to talk, baseball world to listen. Coincidence? I think not. Either My material is so good that brand name organizations feel the need to steal my thunder - or we’ve both heard the expression before and probably stole it ourselves. I’m going to say it’s the former.

I finally got a chance to view the ~20 odd minute interview which basically showcased Clemens’ ability to deflect all the tough questions, at least the ones he hadn’t memorized as of yet to his lawyer Rusty Hardin. One thing that did come out of the interview, however, was that Clemens would stand, preferably sit, before congress and undergo the same questioning process as McGuire, Palmeiro and the bunch. I wonder if Clemens is going to deny his ability so speak English - ala Sammy Sosa.

After reading up on the news, it seems Andy Pettitte is also going to speak before congress on his situation regarding HGH. If Pettitte is asked questions about Clemens, which is almost a guarantee, Clemens could be in some hot water if Pettitte decides to answer. He could always give the ol’ Alberto Gonsalez treatment and “next question”, but that’s probably considered perjury an, if Pettitte is a God fearing man, he will be hard pressed to lie for his “friend”.

Clemens defense video can be seen here. If you watch it long enough, you can see Roger Clemens slowly getting irritated as the questions are fired at him. He seems disoriented at points - mainly because there could have been a LOT of media there, I have no idea. Regardless, until Clemens comes before congress, and his finger points, tie adjustments and hair combs become available via YouTube or ESPN, we’ll still have to reserve judgment.

One more bit of info to throw your way - Clemens and his team of lawyers don’t believe in the accuracy of polygraph tests. I wonder why? Could Rocket have already taken a mock one and failed? I don’t think B12 can hide that.

Clemens denies allegations, sugar still causes diabetes

January 7th, 2008 | email this | digg it | trackback | comment RSS feed
no comment Posted by Brian Chin
Published in News

Yesterday, Roger Clemens, in an interview with “60 Minutes” talking head Mike Wallace severed all ties between him and steroids and anything with the words “human”, “growth” and “hormone.” This just in, you need air to breathe.

Anyone who thought Clemens would confess to the entire world that he was on drugs would have to be on said medication. It’s very hard to ask permission, but very easy to ask forgiveness. On a world level, Clemens would be seen as another pin-up poster in the steroid era - had he confessed. On a smaller scale, to the baseball public, for example, he would be the subject of all-time mockery. I don’t know about you, but I’d be cool with just my peers mocking me - as opposed to the entire galaxy.

In the interview, which I should have watched instead of American Gladiators, Clemens said that he was shocked long-time friend and multiple teammate Andy Pettitte had taken steroids. Give me a break Roger. During the seasons you are accused of taking drugs in (1998, 2000 and 2001) Pettitte would have only been 26, 28 and 29. If anyone got Pettitte hooked on the juice, don’t you think it’d be the older - much more receptive player trying to keep his job and trying to cement his legacy?

I’m not here to place blame or be the judge of this case. I let the higher powers deal with that. But it’s just my inner brain telling me that younger kids wouldn’t be as inclined to take drugs simply because their talent alone should be able to take them to that next level. I’m not saying young kids don’t take them; I’m not saying that young kids don’t get influenced, but what I do know is that not all young kids are stupid.

Since I don’t have access to a television right now, I’ll have to catch highlights of Clemens’ post-interview, interview sometime tonight - or later on in the afternoon. I’ll get back to you on that - but for now - please hold your opinions of the Rocket for a later day. He might be a liar; but there’s one thing we can’t accuse him of - not knowing how to use YouTube.

ESPN’s top free agents; Bonds tops the list

January 7th, 2008 | email this | digg it | trackback | comment RSS feed
no comment Posted by Brian Chin
Published in Analysis

 Of course, as with all ESPN content, you’ve got to pay for it some way or another. Listed now is Keith Law’s top free-agents starting with the Human Steroid himself, Barry Bonds. His days in San Francisco are over, presumably, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him getting some sort of deal in the American League. Bonds can hit (762 home-runs if you’ve forgotten), but he is a magnet for the media and will be so until he’s retired. Well, here’s the list with my spin.

Barry Bonds - 43 - Left FielderBonds

When Barry builds it, they will come. When Barry speaks, they will listen. When Barry cries, they will cry, tears of laughter. Bonds is the most preliavent player the list of free-agents this Winter and it’s no surprise teams haven’t given him offers. For starters, he might go to jail. His first court appearance set off a media storm and should he sign with any team - it is sure to follow. The man can still hit, but it’s hard to put one over the fence when you’re behind bars.

Kyle Lohse -  29 - Starting Pitcher

Once a youthful starter in the Twins system, Loshe has bounced to the Reds and finally out of work. His career record isn’t sparkling (60-74) and his era certainly won’t turn any heads (4.83). He is, however, a veteran and he would compliment any staff - as a spot starter or long reliever. I don’t think he has the stuff to pitch more than a few innings as his WHIP is dismal (1.37).

Mike Cameron - 34 - Center Fielder

Any team looking to hire an aging outfielder that can still make plays in the outfield and still has some pop left in his bat - Mike Cameron is looking for work. His average is something I wouldn’t put on my resume (.251 career) but he will run (18 SB last season) and he did hit 21 home-runs.

Brad Wilkerson - 30 - Outfielder / First Baseman

If you remember anything from the 2005 winter talks, it should be that on December 7,  Brad Wilkerson, Termel Sledge and Armando Galarraga were traded from the Nationals to the Rangers for Alfonzo Soriano. Wilkerson’s best home-run season came back in 2004 when he hit 32 for the now defunct Montreal Expos but has hit just 46 in the next three seasons, 20 of those coming last season. He’s suited more for a platoon role.

Bartolo Colon - 34 - Starting Pitcher

Since winning the AL Cy Young in 2005, Bartolo hasn’t done anything but age. He’s played in just 29 games in the last two seasons and accumulated a record of 7-13 in that that span. Does he still have stuff left in the tank? As a 4 or 5 he might be able to compete consistantly, but as a 1 or 2, forget it.Colon

Octavio Dotel - 34 - Relief Pitcher

Aging relievers usually have more to give than aging starters or position players. They don’t need to come in for many batters and can expend all their energy on just the tasks assigned. That being said, I still wouldn’t touch Dotel with a 40 foot poll atop a 700 foot ladder. He did save 11 games for the Braves last year, but injuries have kept him from being a consistent option. Clubs could use him to bring along the youngsters, but I wouldn’t feel too comfortable putting him back in a setup role.

Shannon Stewart - 33 - Left Fielder

When Shannon stole 51 bases for the Jays in 1998, he solidified himself as a speed demon. Two years later in 2000, he showed that he could hit for power (21 home-runs) and for average (.319). A career .298 hitter, Stewart should be able to find a home in need of a lead-off man not afraid to run. As long as he’s not asking for a boat load of money he should find a suitor.

Kenny Lofton - 40 - Center Fielder

See Shannon Stewart and add 7 years to his age. If you watched the playoffs you probably already know that the man can still hit, the man can still run and, if Grady Sizemore broke both of his ankles, Lofton would probably fill in nicely at center. At 40, he can be a good mentor for younger kids how to play in the field and approach tough pitchers.

Livan Hernandez - 32 - Starting Pitcher

He’ll be 33 in a month and hasn’t had a solid season since 2005 when he went 15-10 with the Nationals. He was plagued by injuries in 2005, limiting him to 10 games and in two seasons after, he has a record of 20-19 with an era hovering 5.13. Livan’s WHIP and OBA have risen every year since 2006 signaling a downhill spiral in his career. I don’t see anyone signing him, not even as a 4 or 5 seeing as how he’s probably looking for something more than a one year deal.

Armando Benitez - 35 - Relief Pitcher

See Livan Hernandez, add three years to his age. To Armando’s credit, however, he did save 9 of 11 situations last season with a k/bb ratio of 2:1. If Julio Franco’s still playing, I don’t see why Benitez can’t become a situational pitcher.  

Clemens to talk, baseball world to listen

January 3rd, 2008 | email this | digg it | trackback | comment RSS feed
no comment Posted by Brian Chin
Published in News

A Roger Clemens exlusive interview will air on CBS’s 60 Minutes on Sunday likely regarding hot topics such as: steroid use, the Mitchell Report and retirement. When that is all said and done the Rocket will address the media on Monday for any follow up questions. Believe me, there will be some. But the real question is - do we really care?

No matter what Clemens says or does during the interview on Sunday and the aftermath on Monday, the world has already classified him as a cheater, even without his side of the story. All the public has to go on is a YouTube video of his denial.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGtbYqNQMs0

The multiple Cy Young winner and fireballer, Clemens has repeatedly denied the use of any performance enhancing steroids, going even as far to acknowledge names such as Brian McNamee.

When Clemens takes to the podium, or simulated mound, it’ll be interesting to see what transpires and if he will even comment on what was said. Will be elaborate? Maybe. Will he tell everyone to replay the video on their PVR’s? Most likely.

I don’t see anything substantial coming out of the conference on Monday so make some time on Sunday to watch, what I’m dubbing, The Great Denial.

Key free agents locked up, some still out on the market

January 3rd, 2008 | email this | digg it | trackback | comment RSS feed
no comment Posted by Brian Chin
Published in Analysis

Baseball is a long season. To survive one-hundred and sixty-two games without injury is an accomplishment not many can say they can add to their resume. As such, free agents become vital in keeping the team together with or without “star” athletes. This winter, amid the Santana and Bonds talk, there have been some important signings of note. Lets take a look.

New Shower Buddies

Mark Prior signs a one year deal with the San Diego Padres. Mark Prior’s career has

been riddled with success and injury. His arm was something scouts used to dream about and he was going to be the next great pitcher. Fast-forward past 2003, and the Steve Bartman error, and Prior fans have added: achillies tendon surgery, elbow strain, throwing elbow strain, strained shoulder, strained left oblique, shoulder tendinitis and shoulder surgery to his list of ailments. The possibility of Prior returning to dominating form is questionable. He’s a young guy (27) and I’m sure he’s got something left in the tank.

Mark Prior

 

Carlos Silva signs a four-year deal with the Mariners. A career record of 55-46 with a 4.31 era makes me ask the question, “Why?” Why are MLB managers hell bent on giving guys with inflated era’s and sub-par records huge contracts? Silva never really had a break out season and, at 28, he might be poised to do so in a Mariners’ uniform. I guess you can’t really get much worse when you had Jeff Weaver in your rotation.

Koskue Fukudome signs a four-year contract with the Cubs. Looking at his numbers in Japan, Fukudome doesn’t really stand apart from say a J.D. Drew on a good year. Fukudome’s highest totals came in 2006 when he posted a solid 31 hr’s, 104 rbi’s and hit a sparkling .351. A career .305 hitter, Fukudome will start at right-field for the Cubs, and possibly atop their lineup. The Cubs need base runners when Soriano, Lee and Ramirez get to the plate.

Hiroki Kuroda signs a three-year contract with the Dodgers. Usually when a team signs a 32-year-old pitcher for more than a year it’s considered suicide if the player doesn’t turn out very well. Kuroda might be an exception worth making if his last three years in the Japanese league are any indication. Since 2005, he’s posted 3.17, 1.85 and 3.56 era’s while logging just more than 580 innings. He strikes out a fair amount and doesn’t seem to walk many batters. At three-years, Kuroda might be a very pleasant surprise.

Returning Shower Mates

Mariano Rivera re-signs with the Yankees. I don’t mind the Yankees keeping the most dominant closer on their roster another season, maybe two seasons, but three? The man is 38 years old! It’s time to inject that closer spot with some young blood. Horrible deal for the Yankees, nice one for the Sandman.A-Rod

Alex Rodriguez re-signs with the Yankees at 10 years - infinity billion dollars. Well $275-million over 10 years might as well be that much right? He is the MVP of the league. He is the MVP of the baseball universe stretching all the way to the neglected Pluto. He isn’t the MVP of the World Series though, ouch.

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  • More player analysis, because it has to be done
  • Rocket still fuming over criticism, Jim Caple steals my headline!
  • Clemens denies allegations, sugar still causes diabetes
  • ESPN’s top free agents; Bonds tops the list
  • Clemens to talk, baseball world to listen
  • Key free agents locked up, some still out on the market

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